The Copenhagen Accord has yielded very poor results as the developed countries have given very low emission reduction pledges. By the deadlinen on January 31st, about 56 countries had officially written in. Most of them are developed nations. Not many developing countries have signed up so far. And most have taken a wait-and-see approach.The Accord is controversial because it arose from a meeting of only a few countries which was not on the official Conference agenda – the Convention has over 190 member states.
Moreover, the Accord threatens to displace the legitimate multilateral process mandated to follow up from the UNFCCC’s 2007 Bali Conference.The model agreed to in Bali was to set a binding overall target for developed nations to cut their collective emissions. This was initially set at 25% to 40% by 2020 compared to the 1990 level.
The Copenhagen Accord counters the developed countries no longer have to make any binding commitments.Each country merely submits the emission reduction it is willing to undertake. There is also no longer an “aggregate target”.These fears have now been proven to be justified. The pledges of some of the developed countries are so low that the overall reduction is only 12% to 18% by 2020 compared to 1990, according to a paper by the World Resources Institute (WRI).
Even if the high end of the pledges (18%) is realised, this does not meet the 25%-40 reduction that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicated is necessary to stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations at 450 ppm or below. Thus the the pledges made by the developed countries do not even meet the Accord’s own standard.
Another report last week, by the scientific Ecofys network, assessed the Copenhagen Accord so far, concluded that they add up to a level of emissions in 2020 that would be in line with a global temperature rise of over 3°C.
Moreover, the Accord threatens to displace the legitimate multilateral process mandated to follow up from the UNFCCC’s 2007 Bali Conference.The model agreed to in Bali was to set a binding overall target for developed nations to cut their collective emissions. This was initially set at 25% to 40% by 2020 compared to the 1990 level.
The Copenhagen Accord counters the developed countries no longer have to make any binding commitments.Each country merely submits the emission reduction it is willing to undertake. There is also no longer an “aggregate target”.These fears have now been proven to be justified. The pledges of some of the developed countries are so low that the overall reduction is only 12% to 18% by 2020 compared to 1990, according to a paper by the World Resources Institute (WRI).
Even if the high end of the pledges (18%) is realised, this does not meet the 25%-40 reduction that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicated is necessary to stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations at 450 ppm or below. Thus the the pledges made by the developed countries do not even meet the Accord’s own standard.
Another report last week, by the scientific Ecofys network, assessed the Copenhagen Accord so far, concluded that they add up to a level of emissions in 2020 that would be in line with a global temperature rise of over 3°C.
GLOBAL TRENDS
By MARTIN KHOR
http://thestar.com.my/columnists/story.asp?file=/2010/2/8/columnists/globaltrends/5634779&sec=globaltrends
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